Nvidia got a 20% price target boost from Wells Fargo on 14 November 2025, just five days before the chipmaker beat earnings expectations. Analyst Aaron Rakers raised his forecast to $265 from $220 whilst keeping an Overweight rating on the stock.
Rakers ranks 13th out of more than 10,000 Wall Street analysts with a 68% success rate. He bumped up his projections for fiscal 2027 and 2028 on stronger hyperscale spending patterns.
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Why the Confidence?
The bank now expects Nvidia to hit $209.2 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026, with earnings of $4.61 per share. That’s barely changed from earlier estimates.
But fiscal 2027 and 2028 got substantial revisions:
- FY27: $301.6 billion revenue (up from $281.7 billion), $7.05 per share
- FY28: $383.2 billion revenue (up from $323.2 billion), $8.90 per share
Data center sales drive most of that growth. Wells Fargo projects this segment will reach $186.6 billion in FY26, 62% higher year over year. By FY28, datacenter revenue could hit $356.5 billion.
“We slightly increase our near term ests. but more notably move our FY27 & FY28 ests. higher given cont. upside momentum in hyperscale capex,” Rakers wrote in his client note.
Rakers set his $265 target at roughly 30 times calendar year 2027 earnings, citing the company’s dominant position in AI infrastructure markets. Tech giants keep ramping hyperscale capex (spending on massive data centers).
Market Context: At the time of the upgrade, Nvidia traded around $186. The new target implies about 42% upside.
Earnings Backed the Call
The timing looked smart. Nvidia reported results on 20 November 2025 with $57.01 billion in third quarter revenue, beating analyst estimates of $54.92 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.30, above the $1.25 consensus.
Rakers told clients that calendar 2027 earnings may push past $9 per share, higher than his official estimate. Supply visibility through 2026 and beyond gave him confidence for the longer term increases.
Other Banks Follow Suit
Wells Fargo isn’t alone in raising targets this month. Multiple firms adjusted their forecasts after seeing continued strength in AI spending:
- Oppenheimer lifted its target to $265
- Citigroup increased from $220 to $270
- Susquehanna raised its forecast to $230
- KeyBanc maintained Overweight with a $250 target
Blackwell chip production appears on track. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google pour billions into AI infrastructure, which keeps demand strong for the GPU maker’s products.
Analyst targets now range from $220 to $352 across major investment banks. The average sits at $247.50, according to TipRanks data.
But Not Everyone’s Convinced
Some analysts remain cautious. At 44 times forward earnings, the chipmaker’s valuation leaves little room for error if AI spending slows. Bloomberg reported concerns about a potential AI bubble ahead of the November earnings report.
China export restrictions add another risk. The company generated about 13% of revenue from China last year, and tighter US export controls on advanced chips might impact future sales. Competitors like Huawei are accelerating development of domestic alternatives.
Market Dominance Stays Intact
Competition barely registers. Nvidia controls 92% of the discrete graphics card market, based on Jon Peddie Research figures from the first quarter of 2025. AMD scrapes by with just 8%, whilst Intel barely shows up.
This market control gives Nvidia pricing power whilst AMD and Intel struggle to gain ground. Nvidia’s CUDA software platform creates switching costs that keep customers locked in.
Shares currently trade around $178, down from recent highs near $212. Support levels sit at $173 and $167. Resistance appears around $185 and $190 according to recent patterns.
The 50 day moving average still stays above the 200 day average, which suggests the longer term uptrend remains intact despite recent pullbacks.
What Investors Should Watch
Three factors will determine if the stock reaches Wells Fargo’s $265 target:
Execution on Blackwell: The new chip architecture needs to ramp production without delays. Any supply issues could slow the growth trajectory Wells Fargo expects.
Sustained AI spending: Tech giants need to keep investing heavily in infrastructure. If they pull back on capex, demand drops and the bull case weakens.
Competition response: AMD and Intel are trying to grab market share. So far neither has made much progress, but that may shift.
For investors tracking AI sector trends and chip stock movements, Newzire provides regular updates on semiconductor market developments and analyst calls.
Wells Fargo’s increased confidence reflects broader Wall Street conviction that AI infrastructure spending will keep accelerating through 2028. With Blackwell production ramping and earnings season complete, the next few quarters will show whether Wells Fargo’s optimism proves justified.
